Did NBA Players Tear Their Achilles Because They Played Too Much? What New Research Shows
Key insights: 60-second read
- NBA players played slightly more game time before Achilles ruptures – In the 10-15 games before injury, players averaged about 1.2-1.6 extra minutes per game than their season average.
- But correlation is not causation – The study was small (19 players), retrospective, and lacked a control group. The authors themselves describe it as hypothesis-generating, not proof of causation.
- The extra minutes may be the "last straw" – Clinically, a small increase in load can expose underlying issues like accumulated fatigue, previous injury, movement patterns, or mismatches between tissue capacity and demands.
- Load vs capacity is the key concept – Injury occurs when demands exceed what the body is currently prepared to tolerate. The goal is not to avoid load but to build capacity for it.
I think the answer is considerably more complicated - and it provides an important opportunity to rethink the way we understand sports injuries.
On this page
1. What the Researchers Actually Found
Achilles tendon ruptures are among the most serious injuries an elite basketball player can experience. They typically require many months of rehabilitation and can have significant consequences for an athlete's performance and career.
A recently published study examined Achilles tendon ruptures in NBA players between the 2014-15 and 2024-25 seasons, looking specifically at what was happening in the games immediately before the injury. The study was published in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine.
"Short-Term Workload Patterns Before Achilles Tendon Rupture in National Basketball Association Players: A Descriptive Epidemiology Study."
The researchers identified 19 NBA players who sustained a basketball-related Achilles tendon rupture between 2014 and 2025. They then examined publicly available data relating to those players' workload, including minutes played, distance covered, games played and scheduling factors.
One of the most interesting findings was that players had played slightly more minutes than their season average in the games immediately preceding their Achilles rupture.
- In the previous 10 games, players averaged 29.0 minutes per game, compared with a season average of 27.4 minutes per game.
- In the previous 15 games, players averaged 28.6 minutes per game, compared with a season average of 27.4 minutes per game.
The difference was statistically significant for both the 10-game and 15-game periods.
Interestingly, however, the researchers did not find a significant difference in average distance run during the Achilles-tear season compared with the players' previous career workload. Nor was there a significant difference in average minutes played across the entire Achilles-tear season compared with the players' previous careers.
2. How Big Was the "Spike"?
This is where headlines can create a misleading impression. When we hear the word spike, it is easy to imagine a dramatic increase in workload.
But the difference identified in this study was relatively small.
Over the preceding 10 games:
29.0 minutes vs 27.4 minutes per game
That is a difference of approximately 1.6 minutes per game.
Over the preceding 15 games:
28.6 minutes vs 27.4 minutes per game
That is a difference of approximately 1.2 minutes per game.
Statistically, these differences were interesting enough to reach the study's predefined significance threshold. But statistically significant does not automatically mean that the difference was large enough to be clinically or biologically responsible for an Achilles rupture.
3. The Study Does NOT Prove Causation
This is probably the most important point to understand about this research.
The study included only 19 players who had already suffered an Achilles rupture. There was no matched group of healthy NBA players who experienced similar increases in playing time but did not rupture their Achilles.
That makes it challenging to determine from this study whether the small increase in playing time actually increased the risk of Achilles rupture.
"The appropriate conclusion is not that playing an extra couple of minutes caused these players' Achilles tendons to rupture. A more accurate interpretation is that among the 19 NBA players who ruptured their Achilles, playing time was modestly higher than their season average during the 10-15 games preceding their injury."
The authors themselves acknowledge this limitation, describing the study as a small, retrospective, exploratory and hypothesis-generating analysis. They specifically state that the results do not establish workload as a risk factor for Achilles tendon rupture.
4. So Does Workload Matter?
Absolutely.
I do not think the answer is to dismiss workload or pretend that the amount we ask of our bodies is irrelevant. Our tissues adapt to the mechanical demands placed upon them. Muscles become stronger. Bones remodel. Tendons adapt to loading. Cardiovascular fitness improves. And when we dramatically increase a physical demand that our body has not been prepared to tolerate, problems can occur.
But there is a huge difference between saying "load matters" and saying "this person's tendon tore because they used it too much." The second explanation is often far too simplistic.
5. The "Last Straw" Concept
This is a concept I frequently use when explaining musculoskeletal injuries. The moment an injury occurs is not necessarily the moment the underlying problem began.
"Maybe the extra playing time wasn't the whole story. Maybe it was the last straw."
Someone can tolerate a particular movement strategy or loading pattern for months or years without experiencing obvious symptoms. Their body may be coping with the demand, even if it is not doing so optimally. Then something changes. They run further. They train harder. They play longer. They become fatigued.
That final challenge may be enough to push the system beyond its current capacity. But that does not necessarily mean that the final challenge was the only reason the injury occurred. It may simply have been the event that finally exposed the accumulated effects of everything that came before it.
6. Load vs Capacity: The Core Concept
This is why I prefer to think about injuries in terms of the relationship between load and capacity.
Load is the demand we place on the body. Capacity is what the body is currently capable of tolerating. Injury becomes more likely when the demands placed on a tissue exceed its current ability to tolerate them.
But capacity is not fixed. It can increase with appropriate training and exposure. It can decrease with periods of inactivity, illness, injury, fatigue, poor mechanics, or other circumstances. And it can differ considerably between individuals.
Key Principle: The same external load does not necessarily represent the same internal load for every person. Asking only "how much did this athlete do?" is not enough. We also need to ask "how well prepared was this athlete for what they were asking their body to do?"
7. Key Takeaways
This new NBA study found that the 19 players who suffered Achilles tendon ruptures had played slightly more minutes than their season average during the 10-15 games before their injury. That is an interesting observation and certainly deserves further research.
But it does not prove that the small increase in playing time caused their Achilles ruptures. The study was small, retrospective and exploratory, and it did not include a matched group of uninjured NBA players. The authors themselves emphasise that their findings are hypothesis-generating and do not establish workload as a risk factor for Achilles rupture.
From my perspective as a physiotherapist, I think there is a much bigger story here. A small increase in workload may sometimes be the last straw rather than the entire cause. That final challenge may expose the accumulated effects of previous loading, tissue capacity, fatigue, previous injury and the way an athlete has been moving and loading their body over a much longer period.
This does not mean workload is irrelevant. It means we should not treat workload as the entire explanation.
"The question isn't simply 'how much did they use their Achilles?' A much more useful question is: 'how well prepared was their Achilles - and the rest of their movement system - for the demands being placed upon it?'"
I genuinely hope this article offers a fresh perspective - or at least one useful takeaway. The body is not fragile, but it does need to be prepared for the demands we place on it. Challenge is how we build capacity, but we need to respect the process of adaptation.
If you have a different issue, or simply want to learn more about how your body moves, head over to the Your Wellness Nerd YouTube channel. Subscribe if you feel inclined, and let me know in the comments what you would like me to cover next.
- Grant
Frequently Asked Questions
Did the NBA study prove that playing more minutes causes Achilles ruptures?
No. The study found an association between slightly higher playing time in the 10-15 games before injury and Achilles rupture, but it did not prove causation. The authors themselves describe the study as hypothesis-generating and state that it does not establish workload as a risk factor for Achilles rupture.
How much extra playing time was associated with the ruptures?
In the 10 games before injury, players averaged about 29.0 minutes compared to their season average of 27.4 minutes - a difference of about 1.6 minutes per game. In the 15 games before injury, the difference was about 1.2 minutes per game.
What is the "last straw" concept?
The "last straw" concept suggests that the moment an injury occurs is not necessarily the moment the underlying problem began. A small increase in load may simply be the final challenge that exposes accumulated effects of previous loading, tissue capacity, fatigue, previous injury and movement patterns that developed over a much longer period.
What does "load vs capacity" mean?
Load refers to the demand we place on the body. Capacity refers to what the body is currently capable of tolerating. Injury becomes more likely when the demands placed on a tissue exceed its current ability to tolerate them. Capacity can increase with appropriate training and decrease with inactivity, illness, injury or fatigue.
One profound insight from this research
"A small increase in workload may be the last straw rather than the entire cause. The question is not simply 'how much did they use it?' but 'how well prepared were they for the demands being placed upon them?'"
References: Kumar V, Sang L, David W, Pandya N. Short-Term Workload Patterns Before Achilles Tendon Rupture in National Basketball Association Players: A Descriptive Epidemiology Study. Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine. 2026. View Study
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